The International Rainy-Lake of the Woods Watershed Board will use the standard rule curve to determine where water levels on Rainy Lake should be this spring.
The Board’s water levels committee made the recommendation based on both current and forecasted conditions.
Current Conditions
- Base flow conditions are lower than normal for this time of year.
- To date, overall average winter temperatures are warmer than 2020, and much warmer than 2014 when significant high-water levels were experienced in the basin.
- The accumulated snowpack is lower than normal and fall in the 20 to 40 percentile range based on historic records.
- Overall, the past winter has been mild when measured by the accumulated snow and severity of cold weather.
Forecasted Conditions
- Current projections of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean show a 60% chance of a neutral condition.
- Historic data since 1970 show that high water years occur most often when La Niña conditions are present and are less likely during neutral conditions.
- The current NOAA long-term forecasts of temperature show equal probabilities of low, normal or high temperature through March, April, and May.
- The current NOAA long-term forecast of precipitation shows a 30% chance above-normal precipitation through March, April, and May.
The committee adds ice on the lakes was thinner than in past winters, and the snowpack is rapidly disappearing.
It says if conditions change, the dam operators may be directed to target specific bands within the standard rule curve.
